This week Friday the current bull market will celebrate its golden birthday. It will turn 9 years old on March 9. Time to celebrate
This is now one of the oldest bull markets to ever live. Does this bull have the strength to make it to a record-breaking age 10? We will know by this time next year.
Sometimes we forget that this bull has survived some harrowing times over the course of its lifetime. In addition to the current correction, it experienced the following setbacks since March 9, 2009:
• February 2016 (-13%)
• August 2015 (-12%)
• October 2011 (-19%)
• July 2010 (-16%)
This bull shook off all of those scares and came back stronger each time. Yet every bull birthday comes with a hint of trepidation. We know that at some undefined point in the future this old bull will succumb to a disease and a bear market will be born to replace it.
In 1999 the bull died from excess technology euphoria. In 2007 the bull died of excess lending in real estate. The next disease is unlikely to be either one of those, but something new, different, and excessively irresistible yet gradually fatal to our bull. Those excesses may even be secretly building in plain sight today.
Please celebrate our bull’s golden birthday on Friday and enjoy its company while you have the opportunity.
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