I clearly remember May 10, 1990. The odds of snow that day in the Milwaukee area were 0% according to the weather experts.
Yet some areas in southeastern Wisconsin received over 7 inches of thick, wet snow that took down thousands of trees that had leafed out for spring. Some schools even had a snow day in May. Surprise!
Last Saturday the experts gave Thunder Snow a 16-1 chance to win the Kentucky Derby. None of the experts predicted that the colt would try to buck his jockey off coming out of the gate and not even bother to finish the muddy race.
Right now the “expert” stock market traders are placing very little odds of any surprises in the financial markets over the next 30 days. The volatility indices we follow are at their lowest level since December 1993, indicating that traders are surprisingly unconcerned about anything going wrong in the world over the next month.
Much like snow or Thunder Snow, I think there could be some surprises in store for the markets. While corporate earnings reports were solid in the first quarter, there are still plenty of potential surprises available from North Korea, Syria, Russia, economic reports, Federal Reserve speeches, and Congressional policy debates.
Fortunately, our clients have their personal Portfolio GPS to guide them through these “unexpected” surprises and stay on track toward their personal goals.
Mr. Market is relatively care-free as of late, with a lackadaisical drift higher over the last week. According to IAG’s Market Mood Meter©, his current mood in now Confident. Trend strength is at 92% (44 points out of 48), Momentum strength is at 58% (28 out of 48 points), and volatility expectations have fallen over the last three days.
Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Financial advice offered through Investors Advisory Group, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In fact, the opposite can be true. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or development referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.
Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein.
Market Mood Meter© Trend strength is determined using S&P 500 Index daily moving averages (DMAs) (8-21, 13-34, 21-55, 34-89, 55-144 and 89-233) to determine whether the short-term DMA value is higher than the longer-term DMA value. A daily moving average is the average price of the index over the indicated number of days. Trend is either Positive (8 points) if the short-term DMA is higher, Negative (0 points) if the short-term DMA is lower or Transitioning (4 points). A trend is Transitioning if the difference between the shorter DMA and longer DMA is between -.34% and +.34% of the shorter DMA. Maximum is 48 points when all trends are Positive.
Market Mood Meter© Momentum strength is determined using the same S&P 500 Index DMAs to determine whether trends are getting stronger or weaker calculated by dividing the difference between the shorter DMA and longer DMA by the shorter DMA. Momentum must be directional – rising or falling -- for 5 consecutive trading days to be Gaining (8 points) or Losing (0 points), otherwise momentum is considered Transitioning (4 points). Maximum is 48 points when all momentum is Positive.